According to recent studies, climate change may modify the way lightning strikes in Europe.
This might result in less lightning over central Europe and more lightning over mountains and in northern Europe.
According to a study conducted by Newcastle University and the Met Office and published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, there may be evidence of shifting weather patterns in the following areas:
- Increasing temperatures lead to more storms with greater intensity, but locally less lightning due to a decrease in cloud ice and frozen particles in storm clouds.
- More high-altitude lightning, notably over the Alps.
- Less lightning over the sea and on lower terrain in central Europe, however this is dependent on less certain circulation shifts.
However, as the authors point out, it’s not all bad news. The researchers discovered that these changes could raise the risk of wildfires in the Highlands and in Northern Europe.
While more frequent lightning strikes over mountains and in Northern Europe may cause more wildfires in higher-level forests, we are going to see relatively fewer lightning hazards over more populated areas of Central Europe, according to study lead author Dr. Abdullah Kahraman, Senior Researcher in Severe Weather and Climate Change at the School of Engineering at Newcastle University.
This is from the most recent Met Office climate simulations, which, unlike earlier studies, allowed individual thunderstorms and their crucial processes leading to lightning patterns to be simulated across Europe. These simulations have the highest local details in meteorological and topographical features down to 2 km. This is one potential future climate (RCP8.5 scenario) realization, and there are uncertainties, particularly with regard to circulation alterations.
Met Office Science Fellow and co-author of the paper, Professor Lizzie Kendon, said, “These new, very high-resolution climate projections, whose resolution is comparable to that of weather forecast models, offer fresh insights into how convective storms and the dangers they bring, such as torrential downpours, lightning, hail, and wind gusts, will change in the future.” In contrast to earlier studies, this study found changes in lightning patterns. This demonstrates the significance of accurately describing the fundamental physical processes that occur within storms themselves and the potential for changes in the future that even have the opposite sign.
These results, according to the researchers, indicate the need to reassess the lightning risk to wildfires, buildings, and people’s lives throughout Europe.
Professor Hayley Fowler, a co-author of the study and an expert on the effects of climate change at Newcastle University’s School of Engineering, added: “After the dismal report, “Readiness for Storms Ahead?,” this is just further bad news for northern Europe’s crucial national infrastructure. The Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy released a report last week titled “Critical National Infrastructure in an Age of Climate Change.” Our work has outlined previously unidentified threats from rising lightning, which will necessitate increasing spending on climate adaptation measures. “To generate policies and strategies that are locally and sector-relevant for adaptation planning, more information is required about the possible effects of these increases in lightning on electricity and other crucial infrastructure systems.”
