Planning is necessary to promote the sustainable development of marine environments, just as there has long been spatial planning for activities on land. Researchers from the University of Gothenburg and other institutions have now demonstrated that marine planning must now take climate change into account, which it does not at the moment. According to the researchers’ models, temperature and salt content changes may affect ecosystems and species more than all other environmental factors combined.
A digital tool called Symphony has been around for a while. The distribution of significant ecosystems and species along Sweden’s coastlines is depicted using GIS maps, along with how environmental disturbances like nutrient pollution, boat traffic, and fishing affect them in various regions. The maps are meant to help the government and other groups involved in marine planning set priorities and do other things.
The current iteration of Symphony has the drawback of not taking future climate change into account. Researchers working on the ClimeMarine project have now looked at what happens when the tool is changed to take into account changes in temperature and salt content that are expected.
Per Jonsson, a researcher at the University of Gothenburg and co-author of the study, says, “It shows that the expected climate change will increase the total environmental impact by at least 50% and in some places by as much as several hundred%).”
Maps reveal where climate change has the most impact
GIS maps illustrate how the impacts of climate change differ for various regions.
“It’s an obvious indication that, in order to lower the overall rate of impact in some areas, we might need to reduce other impacts. For example, we might think about rerouting a shipping line around valuable eelgrass meadows or limiting the growth of marinas and recreational boating, says Jonsson.
The tool also makes it possible to pinpoint regions that are predicted to be less affected by climate change, such as so-called upwelling regions like those off the coast of Gotland, where deep, cold water rises and cools the water at the surface. These places can serve as climate refuges, allowing vulnerable species to survive.
To protect these areas, where we “remove” other factors that have an impact, marine reserves may be taken into consideration. “Symphony can help figure out where the new protected marine areas will be that Sweden has promised to make.”
We need more research on how ecosystems and species react
According to Per Jonsson, these forecasts are prone to flaws. Future temperature and salt content predictions are made using mathematical models that are constantly being developed and enhanced. In the future, we are unsure of what will happen to our carbon dioxide emissions. It’s challenging to evaluate this political issue.
Additionally, we must comprehend the degree to which various ecosystems and species are vulnerable to climate change. We require experiments that demonstrate what occurs when the temperature rises and the salt content falls. ”
He is certain that climate change will have an impact on marine environments in the future even without these, though.
“The findings of the study can be viewed as educated guesses based on the data at hand. But it is obvious that marine planning needs to take the effects of a changing climate into account.
